What To Expect from a Natural Hazard PML Study
11 June 2014
Risk management professionals continuously evaluate the most cost effective approach to mitigating losses for facilities under the threat of catastrophic natural hazards. This process often starts with development of a Probable Maximum Loss (PML) study. A PML study is typically used to determine the expected loss to structures, equipment and other non-structural elements as well as business interruption loss as a result of event with a defined return period.
It is important for risk management professionals, facility managers and business owners to understand the process used to develop a loss model, the difference between deterministic and probabilistic events, and how development and selection of representative damage curves for the structures and non-structural elements is critical to obtaining accurate results.
Other related topics, such accounting for demand surge and whether a detailed site investigation is required as part of a PML study will also be discussed.
What the Audience Will Learn:
- Development of a Loss Model
- Deterministic vs. Probabilistic Events
- The Development and Accuracy of Damage/Loss Curves
- Demand Surge
- The Benefits of a Site Visit
Dr. Nathan Gould, Chief of Technology for the ABS Consulting Extreme Loads and Structural Risk Division, also serves as the General Manager of the St. Louis office of ABS Consulting. He is a practicing structural engineer with over 20 years of experience in the design, construction and rehabilitation of major structures in all regions of the United States. Dr. Gould is active in the utilization of performance based seismic design criteria and methodology for the design of new buildings, and the retrofit of existing structures and nonstructural elements. He is the technical leader for ABS Consulting in the implementation of state-of-the art seismic analysis and design criteria for both buildings and equipment.
Dr. Gould is the author of numerous technical papers including articles on Performance Based Seismic Design, Seismic Evaluation and Retrofit of Non-Structural Elements, Progressive Collapse of Structures, Managing Extreme Wind Losses, and Anti-Terrorism/Force Protection design. He has been a member of several post earthquake reconnaissance groups, including teams that investigated damage following the 2010 Haitian and 2011 Christchurch events. Dr. Gould currently serves on serves on numerous technical committees and he is a licensed Professional and Structural Engineer in several states.
Mr. Robert (Bob) Konz is a Texas-licensed Professional Engineer with more than 24 years of experience in structural engineering, physical testing, and damage assessment for conventional and extreme loads. In addition to analysis and design, he has performed probabilistic risk assessments (PRA), root cause analyses (RCA), and engineering critical assessments (ECA). Past and current clients include power plants, petrochemical, industrial, commercial, hospitality, medical, and educational facilities. Mr. Konz also performed post-event damage reconnaissance for hurricanes Gustav and Ike.
Mr. Konz participated in national standards committees addressing design loads and performance of buildings including ASCE 7-10, Minimum Design Loads for Buildings and Other Structures (Wind Loads), Anchorage Design for Petrochemical Facilities (ASCE 2013), and ASTM subcommittees involving whole buildings and facilities. Mr. Konz has authored and presented several technical publications on extreme wind damageability and anchorage to concrete.
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